Community-Owned Prediction Markets

Research Overview

Author: Andrew Fennell Young
Release Date: January 18, 2022


Sports and political betting are the most popular genres of prediction markets today. This project examines blockchain-based prediction markets. Global prediction market protocols allow anyone to create a community-owned-and-operated marketplace to bet on the outcomes of future events, such as whether countries will fulfill their climate change commitments on time. The next multibillion-dollar prediction market will be a smart contract protocol deployed as a public utility on the Ethereum blockchain, where user ownership will intensify network loyalty and engagement. Implementation challenges include voter apathy, stakeholder alignment, ongoing funding, and upgradability because of their decentralized and open-source nature.

Related Content

Autonomous Vehicles and Blockchain

This project explores how blockchain technology will optimize the deployment of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs), including those with electric vertical takeoff and landing capabilities. It looks at the Mobile Open Blockchain Initiative, which involves 80 percent of world’s auto manufacturers and leading tech firms. It covers such implementation challenges as blockchain latency and scalability, communications network latency, device security, and regulation. Finally, it raises concerns about data privacy on immutable distributed ledgers as well as the legal liabilities of CAV ownership and usage.

Read More

Patterns from the Past

This is the first half of Trust(less): How Blockchain Will Help Us Navigate the Post-Trust World. It establishes the context for distrust in technology. We might assume that our current challenges with blockchain innovations are unique. But every generation of inventive entrepreneurs has faced push-back from a species that doesn’t easily embrace change. After reviewing the history of initially terrifying inventions—from electricity and elevators to artificial intelligence and Airbnb—the author distills the lessons relevant to the building consumer trust needed for broad consumer adoption of blockchain technologies.

Read More
BRI Europe